Category: Information / Topics: History • Information • Statistics • Trends
by Stu Johnson
Posted: January 8, 2021
An updated look at the COVID statistics comparing the U.S. to the world…
Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in perspective (Number 6)
This series was spawned by my reaction to reporting on the COVID-19 pandemic that focused on raw numbers. Big numbers are impressive, even frightening, and hard to comprehend, but rarely have we been given a context that helps lead to better understanding of the numbers or how to make comparisons between the U.S. and the rest of the world. This series has turned from occasional pieces to a monthly summary setting the U.S. numbers in global perspective. This analysis is based on data from worldometers.info.
Report Sections:
• December at-a-glance • Scope of This Report
• Where We Are Now (Global, Continental and Country Analysis)
• COVID Deaths Compared to the Leading Causes of Death in the U.S.
• Profile of Monitored Continents & Countries
From the worldometers website we track the following Categories:
Instead of reporting Cases per Million and Deaths per Million directly, I try to put raw numbers in the perspective of several key measures. These are a different way of expressing "per Million" statistics, but it seems easier to grasp when you see it in a table.
Our analysis covers countries that have appeared in the top-10 of the worldometers categories since September 2020. This includes most of the world's largest countries as well as some that are much smaller. A chart profiling the monitored countries and the five major continents will be found at the end of this report.
Turkey appeared in the top-10 for the first time, for Cases, so it is now included in this analysis. Some of the projections and comparisons to the 1918 Spanish Flu have been updated. As analysis has become more extensive, I acknowledge a tendency to get too "deep in the weeds" in level of detail, so I' have attempted to simplify some of the reporting. You will find two charts replacing detailed narrative for comparison of continental and country data.
The reported surges in cases during December do not appear as widespread as the news would indicate. In fact, as I prepared this report it struck me that there is something of a disconnect between the media reports that suggest that the pandemic is generally out of control and the numbers analyzed. You may not agree with me, but as I go through the numbers, the picture I get is that in some places there are very serious surges, but it is not reflected in the global numbers. That is why I expanded these reports over recent months to compare the U.S. numbers with to her countries and the world.
Of the 21 countries tracked for this analysis, seven were at or above the global level of increase in cases at the end of December (32%): Germany, France, Canada, UK, USA, Russia and Italy. Except for Russia and Canada, the others have been prominent in news reports in December. Six of the 21 were at or above the global increase in deaths at the end of December (24%): Germany, Russia, Italy, USA, Canada, and UK. Germany was far ahead of the others with an increase of 67% in cases and 103% in deaths compared to November. All the other countries saw cases growing at a slower pace, even though their total cases and deaths exceeded the global level.
Thus, my argument that focusing on the hot spots can give news consumers the impression that everywhere things are as bad as the worst, which get the media attention. That makes understanding and empathy difficult. While there are genuine hot spots—places where the situation is extremely dire—there are other places, where many of us live, that are affected more by the threat than the reality of runaway disease and death.
Looking at the December data, the growth in global cases from month to month is actually slowing in rate of increase, so it is important to look at regional and country data to explain the sense that things are out of control. Public officials warned against travel at Thanksgiving in the U.S., and similar warnings went out on a much broader scale for the Christmas holidays in December. We can see evidence of the impact of Thanksgiving surges in the December numbers, but will need to wait for the January numbers to see whether the added travel and increased COVID-fatigue seen around Christmas had an impact, and if so, whether it is global or focused on some countries or regions.
My efforts in this series are not meant to downplay or deny reality, but to provide perspective that looks beyond hype that can actually serve as a kind of misinformation, even if inadvertent. Events like this pandemic are complicated and do not affect all of us (the whole world, in this case) with the same intensity at the same time.
At the end of December there were 83.8-million confirmed COVID-19 cases around the world, an increase of 20.3-million, or 32%, since November.
While the number of cases has increased over the previous month, the rate of increase each month is actually dropping on a global scale: October was 39% higher than September with 12,900 new cases; November was 37% over October, with 17,129 new cases, and December was 32% more than November, with 29,274 cases. How could the rate go down if the numbers are going up? It seems counterintuitive, but consider this: if the rate of increase remained constant at 39% each month, we would have seen global cases at 89.6-million by the end of December, nearly five million more than actually reported.
To date, 1.1% of the world's population of 7.8-billion has been reported as having confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases.
The criteria has evolved somewhat since the pandemic was declared in March. In the state of Illinois, USA, where I live, original reporting included only "confirmed" cases. As testing has expanded, that has expanded in recent months to include "probable" (asymptomatic, non-hospitalized) cases. While the reporting of cases may be subject to definitional ambiguity, the report of deaths is a more concrete number (though there have been arguments that COVID is assigned as the cause of death when it should more rightly be a serious underlying condition triggered by the virus). For the purposes of this report, we have to deal with the numbers as reported.
1.8-million have died—up 352,339 (24%) over November. This represents a mortality rate of 2.2% (deaths as proportion of cases), which is down slightly from 2.3% in November.
The global mortality rate has fallen steadily since we first reported it in September at 3.0%. This is not unexpected since the reporting of cases has increased as testing has accelerated, increasing the gap between reported cases and deaths, lowering the mortality rate. As reported last month, some experts feel the infection rate is as much as ten times higher than the recorded case rate, which would make mortality that much lower. For our purposes, that is not as important as the fact that the most compelling statistic is the death toll. Also, for my analysis, even with differences of opinion on definitions, as long as the methods and criteria remain fairly stable, it provides a means of seeing trends over time.
PERSPECTIVE: The 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic is estimated to have struck 500 million people, 26.3% of the world population of 1.9-billion at that time. By contrast, we're now at 1.1% of the global population. Deaths a century ago have been widely estimated at between 50- and 100-million worldwide, putting the global mortality rate somewhere between 10 and 20-percent. It has been estimated that 675,000 died in the U.S.
IF COVID-19 hit at the same rate as 1918, we would see about 2-billion cases worldwide by the time COVID-19 is over, with the global population now at 7.8-billion—four times what it was in 1918. There would be 200- to 400-million deaths. For the U.S., this would mean cases approaching 90-million and deaths of nearly 9-million and perhaps as high as 18-million.
However, at the present rate of confirmed cases and mortality while the total number of global cases could approach 500 million or more—comparable to 1918 in number, that would be one-quarter of 1918 when taking population growth into account . .. and assuming the pandemic persists as long as the Spanish Flu, which went on in three waves over a two year period. With a vaccine already in early stages of distribution, the end of COVID-19 could come sooner. Like 1918, however, there could be complicating factors such as the mutation in Britain, now discovered in Colorado, that is more highly transmissible (but not necessarily more deadly).
Using the mortality rate of 2.2% in December, total deaths with the above projection of cases, would be over 12-million worldwide, tragic but far below the number reported for 1918 (50-million) with an even wider gap (200 million) when taking population growth into account.
The contrast demonstrates the vast difference in scale between the Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago and COVID-19 now. Key differences are the mitigation efforts and available treatment today (though still leaving the health care system overwhelmed in some areas), and the beginning of vaccine distribution. In addition, in 1918 much of the world was focused on a brutal war among nations (World War I) rather than waging a war against the pandemic, which ran its course and was undoubtedly made much worse by the war, with trans-national troop movements, the close quarters of trench warfare, and large public gatherings supporting or protesting the war.
This analysis covers the five major continents. The population and resultant numbers for Oceana are too small to be significant, so it is not included. Instead of reporting cases-per-million or deaths-per-million, it is easier to grasp those numbers as a proportion of population. Tests and Tests per Million are not reported at the Continental level.
GLOBAL cases increased 32% in December, to 83.8-million; deaths increased 24% to 1.8-million, for a mortality rate of 2.2%, down from 2.3% in November.
Rank | Continents | Cases | Deaths | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | Percent | Number | Own | Change | Number | Change | Mortality | |
Global | 7.8B | 100% | 83.8M | - | 32% | 1,824,915 | 24% | 2.2% |
1 | Asia 4.6B |
59.3% | Europe 23.7M 28.2% |
N America 5.6% |
Asia 40% |
Europe 543,836 29.8% |
Europe 38% |
S America 2.7% |
2 | Africa 1.3B |
17.1% | Asia 23.4M 28.0% |
Europe 3.2% |
Europe 37% |
N America 514,352 28.2% |
N America 26% |
N America 2.5% |
3 | Europe 747.7M |
9.6% | N America 20.7M 24.7% |
S America 2.0% |
N America 28% |
S America 362,733 19.9% |
Africa 26% |
Africa 2.4% |
4 | S America 653.9M |
8.4% | S America 11,143 15.8% |
Asia 0.5% |
Africa 27% |
Asia 337,354 18.5% |
Asia 16% |
Europe 2.3% |
5 | N America 368.9M |
4.7% | Africa 2.7M 3.3% |
Africa 0.2% |
S America 19% |
Africa 65,566 3.6% |
S America 11% |
Asia 1.4% |
"Number" columns include country name, raw number and percentage of the world number.
"Own" is percent of its own population. Change is comparison to previous month.
Shaded cells indicate that value is at or above global figure or percentage of world population for the continent.
It is clear from the chart for December that Europe, North America and South America represent the overall "hot spots," with numbers disproportionate to their population. As pointed out last month, Asia and Europe appear comparable by raw number of cases, but Asia has six times the population of Europe. However, the 40% increase in cases for Asia is worth watching (though its change in deaths is below the global level). It should be noted that numbers for China have not increased since I began monitoring of worldometers data in September.
Even though the rate of change for new cases in Europe was above the global level, it has dropped from 102% in October to 74% in November, and 37% in December. North and South America were both below the global level of 32% in December.
As with the Continental perspective, you will find a chart rather than the detailed narrative used in past reports. I hope you will find this change helpful.
The U.S. (cells highlighted with a red border), remains at the top of cases, deaths, and more positively, in the number of tests. It also continues at the top in the proportion of its own population reported as cases. The level of change for cases, however, is behind Germany, France, Canada and the UK. The level of change in deaths, likewise is below that of Germany, Russia and Italy. Because the U.S. is so strikingly high in cases and deaths, it is notable that its mortality rate—deaths as a proportion of cases—is near the bottom of the 21 countries in our analysis, and below the global rate. More general comments follow the chart.
For four months, (September-December), the highest cases were recorded by the U.S., India, Brazil, and Russia. That is true also for deaths, with the U.S., India and Brazil in the top three rankings each of those four months. Below that the order becomes more mixed each month, reaching down as far as Peru, ranked No. 43 by population, which came in at No. 10 for total deaths at the end of October. The U.S. has been No. 1 in tests for two months, up from No. 2 in September and October. The U.S., China and India have shared the top three rankings in number of tests reported since September. (See the note below the chart about the percentage figure under the number of tests).
Rank | Countries | Cases | Deaths | Tests | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | Rank/% | Number | Own | Change | Number | Change | Mortality | Number | Change | |
Global | 7.8B | 100% | 83.8M | 1.1% | 32% | 1,824,915 | 24% | 2.2% | not tracked | |
1 | China 1.4B |
1 18.4% |
USA 20.4MM 24.4% |
USA 6.1% |
Germany 63% |
USA 354,255 19.4% |
Germany 103% |
Mexico 8.8% |
USA 253.4M 76% |
France 70% |
2 | India 1.4B |
2 17.6% |
India 10.3M 12.3% |
Belgium 5.6% |
France 57% |
Brazil 194,976 10.7% |
Russia 43% |
Ecuador 6.6% |
India 172.0M 12% |
USA 31% |
3 | USA 334M |
3 4.3% |
Brazil 7.7M 9.2% |
Spain 4.1% |
Canada 55% |
India 149,018 8.2$ |
Italy 33% |
Bolivia 5.8% |
China* 160.0M 11% |
Brazil 31% |
4 | Brazil 212.9M |
6 2.7% |
Russia 3.2M 3.8% |
France 4.0% |
UK 53% |
Mexico 124,897 6.8% |
USA 29% |
China* 5.3% |
Russia 90.6M 62% |
Colombia 27% |
5 | Russia 145.9M |
9 1.9% |
France 2.6M 3.1% |
UK 3.7% |
USA 47% |
Italy 74,159 4.1% |
Canada 29% |
Iran 4.6% |
UK 54.9 81% |
UK 26% |
6 | Mexico 129.3M |
10 1.7% |
UK 2.5M 3.0% |
Brazil 3.6% |
Russia 38% |
UK 73,512 4.0% |
UK 26% |
Peru 3.7% |
France 35.0M 54% |
Germany 25% |
7 | Turkey 84.3M |
17 1.1% |
Turkey 2/2M 2.6% |
Argentina 3/6% |
Italy 32% |
France 64,632 3.5% |
France 23% |
Italy 3.5% |
Germany 34.8M 42% |
Mexico 24% |
8 | Iran 83.9M |
18 1.1% |
Italy 2.1M 2.5% |
Italy 3/5% |
Mexico 28% |
Russia 57,019 3.1% |
Mexico 18% |
Belgium 3.0% |
Brazil 28.6M 13% |
Argentina 23% |
9 | Germany 83.8M |
19 1.1% |
Spain 1.9M 2.3% |
Columbia 3.2% |
Iran 27% |
Iran 56,223 3.1 |
Colombia 18% |
UK 3.0% |
Spain 27.0M 58% |
Iran 23% |
10 | UK 67.9M |
21 0.9% |
Germany 1/8M 2/1% |
Chile 3.2% |
Colombia 25% |
Spain 50,837 2.8% |
Belgium 17% |
Chile 2.7% |
Italy 26.6M 44% |
Chile 23% |
11 | France 65.3M |
22 0.8% |
Colombia 1.6M 2.0% |
Peru 3/1% |
Brazil 21% |
Argentina 43,245 2.4% |
Iran 17% |
Canada 2.7% |
Turkey 24.5M 29% |
India 23% |
12 | Italy 60/4M |
23 0.8% |
Argentina 1.6M 1.9% |
Turkey 2/6% |
Argentina 15% |
Colombia 43,213 2.4% |
Spain 13% |
Argentina 2.7% |
Canada 13.8M 37% |
Italy 21% |
13 | Colombia 50.9M |
29 0.7% |
Mexico 1.4M 1.7% |
Russia 2.2% |
Belgium 12% |
Peru 37,680 2.1% |
Brazil 13% |
Colombia 2.6% |
Colombia 8.1M 16% |
Canada 21% |
14 | Spain 46.8M |
30 0.6% |
Iran 1.2M 1.5% |
Germany 2/1% |
Spain 11% |
Germany 34,182 1.9% |
Argentina 12% |
Spain 2.6% |
Iran 7.5M 9% |
Russia 19% |
15 | Argentina 46.8M |
32 0.6% |
Peru 1.0M 1.2% |
Canada 1.5% |
Chile 10% |
Turkey 20,881 1.1% |
India 8% |
Brazil 2.5% |
Belgium 6.9M 59% |
Spain 17% |
16 | Canada 37.7M |
39 0.5% |
Belgium 644K 0.8% |
Iran 1.5% |
Ecuador 10% |
Belgium 19,441 1.1% |
Chile 8% |
France 2.5% |
Chile 6.5M 34% |
Belgium 17% |
17 | Peru 32.9M |
43 0.4% |
Chile 609K 0.7% |
Bolivia 1/4% |
Bolivia 9% |
Chile 16,608 0.9% |
Peru 5% |
Germany 2.0% |
Peru 5.5M 17% |
Peru 8% |
18 | Chile 19.1M |
63 0.2% |
Canada 581K 0.7% |
Ecuador 1.2% |
India 9% |
Canada 15,606 0.9% |
Ecuador 4% |
Russia 1.8% |
Argentina 4.8M 11% |
China* 0% |
19 | Ecuador 17.6M |
67 0.2% |
Ecuador 212K 0.3% |
Mexico 1.1% |
Peru 9% |
Ecuador 14,034 0.8% |
Bolivia 2% |
USA 1.7% |
Mexico 3.6M 3% |
Ecuador 0% |
20 | Bolivia 11.7M |
80 0.1% |
Bolivia 158K 0.2% |
India 0.7% |
China* 0% |
Bolivia 9,149 0.5% |
China 0% |
India 1.4% |
Ecuador 800K 5% |
Bolivia 0% |
21 | Belgium 11.6M |
81 0.1% |
China* 87K 0.0% |
China* 0.0% |
Turkey new |
China* 4,634 0.3% |
Turkey new |
Turkey 0.9% |
Bolivia 400K 3% |
Turkey new |
"Number" columns include percentage of world cases and deaths. "Own" is percent of its own population.
"Tests" includes the reported total number of tests and the percentage signifies that number as a proportion of the total population.
That does not, however, mean that that number of people have been tested. Because of multiple tests, the actual number tested will be less.
Shaded cells indicate that value is at or above global figure or percentage of world population for continent.
* China has not reported any updated data
The shading indicates countries at or above the global level, shown in the first row. Because the countries tracked are or have been high on the list of 218 countries reported by worldometers, it is not surprising that most or all of the 21 countries reported here will be at or above the global level. That is certainly the situation with the number of cases and deaths, as well as the proportion of cases against each country's own population. More significant is the amount of change, for both cases and deaths, which is not tied as tightly to the global level, so from month to month we will be able to observe shifting patterns, particularly in looking for surges. Indeed, the highest levels of increase in cases and deaths for December are seen in Europe and North America, where we have heard reports of surges. .
According to the CDC, the 10 leading causes of death in 2018 (the latest year available) were as follows. These total just over 2-million deaths per year. COVID death milestones are shown in red. Even if the final toll by the end of 2020 is well below worst-case projections (upwards of 2-million deaths), it is striking how rapid the rise in deaths has been since early March.
updated since the last report with data for 2018—most are up from 2017, but all remain in the same order of ranking
There are those who question the veracity of assigning COVID-19 to many deaths among people with underlying conditions, such as heart and respiratory disease. Still others have suggested a rise in other health issues, including death, because of deferred health care. It will be years before all of that is sorted out. For my purposes here, I can only go by the most reliable sources available.
(Data from worldometers.info).
Rank | Country | Population | Share of World Population |
Density People per square km |
Urban Population |
Median Age |
WORLD | 7.82B | 100% | -- | -- | -- | |
Top 10 Countries by Population, plus Five Major Continents See lists of countries by continent |
||||||
- | ASIA | 4.64B | 59.3% | 150 | 51 countries | 32 |
1 | China | 1.44B | 18.4% | 153 | 61% | 38 |
2 | India | 1.38B | 17.7% | 454 | 35% | 28 |
- | AFRICA | 1.34BM | 17.1% | 45 | 59 countries | 20 |
- | EUROPE | 747.7M | 9.6% | 34 | 44 countries | 43 |
- | S AMERICA | 653.8M | 8.4% | 32 | 50 countries | 31 |
- | N AMERICA | 368.9M | 4.7% | 29 | 5 countries | 39 |
3 | USA | 331.5M | 4.3% | 36 | 83% | 38 |
4 | Indonesia* | 274.5M | 3.5% | 151 | 56% | 30 |
5 | Pakistan* | 220.9M | 2.8% | 287 | 35% | 23 |
6 | Brazil | 212.9M | 2.7% | 25 | 88% | 33 |
7 | Nigeria* | 206.1M | 2.6% | 226 | 52% | 18 |
8 | Bangladesh* | 165.2M | 2.1% | 1,265 | 39% | 28 |
9 | Russia | 145.9M | 1.9% | 9 | 74% | 40 |
10 | Mexico | 129.3M | 1.7% | 66 | 84% | 29 |
*these countries do not appear in the details because they have not yet reached a high enough threshold to be included Other Countries included in Analysis most have been in top 10 of one or more categories covered in this report at least one month since October 2020 |
||||||
Rank | Country | Population | Share of World Population |
Density People per square km |
Urban Population |
Median Age |
17 | Turkey | 84.3M | 1.1% | 110 | 76% | 32 |
18 | Iran | 83.9M | 1.1% | 52 | 76% | 32 |
19 | Germany | 83.8M | 1.1% | 240 | 76% | 46 |
21 | United Kingdom | 67.9M | 0.9% | 281 | 83% | 40 |
22 | France | 65.3M | 0.8% | 119 | 82% | 42 |
23 | Italy | 60.4M | 0.8% | 206 | 69% | 47 |
29 | Colombia | 50.9M | 0.7% | 46 | 80% | 31 |
30 | Spain | 46.8M | 0.6% | 94 | 80% | 45 |
32 | Argentina | 45.2M | 0.6% | 17 | 93% | 32 |
39 | Canada | 37.7M | 0.5% | 4 | 81% | 41 |
43 | Peru | 32.9M | 0.4% | 26 | 79% | 31 |
63 | Chile | 19.1M | 0.2% | 26 | 85% | 35 |
67 | Ecuador | 17.6M | 0.2% | 71 | 63% | 28 |
80 | Bolivia | 11.7M | 0.1% | 11 | 69% | 26 |
81 | Belgium | 11.6M | 0.1% | 383 | 98% | 42 |
This article was also posted on SeniorLifestyle, which I edit
Search all articles by Stu Johnson
Stu Johnson is owner of Stuart Johnson & Associates, a communications consultancy in Wheaton, Illinois focused on "making information make sense."
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Posted: January 8, 2021 Accessed 2,839 times
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Category: Information / Topics: History • Information • Statistics • Trends
by Stu Johnson
Posted: January 8, 2021
An updated look at the COVID statistics comparing the U.S. to the world…
Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in perspective (Number 6)
This series was spawned by my reaction to reporting on the COVID-19 pandemic that focused on raw numbers. Big numbers are impressive, even frightening, and hard to comprehend, but rarely have we been given a context that helps lead to better understanding of the numbers or how to make comparisons between the U.S. and the rest of the world. This series has turned from occasional pieces to a monthly summary setting the U.S. numbers in global perspective. This analysis is based on data from worldometers.info.
Report Sections:
• December at-a-glance • Scope of This Report
• Where We Are Now (Global, Continental and Country Analysis)
• COVID Deaths Compared to the Leading Causes of Death in the U.S.
• Profile of Monitored Continents & Countries
From the worldometers website we track the following Categories:
Instead of reporting Cases per Million and Deaths per Million directly, I try to put raw numbers in the perspective of several key measures. These are a different way of expressing "per Million" statistics, but it seems easier to grasp when you see it in a table.
Our analysis covers countries that have appeared in the top-10 of the worldometers categories since September 2020. This includes most of the world's largest countries as well as some that are much smaller. A chart profiling the monitored countries and the five major continents will be found at the end of this report.
Turkey appeared in the top-10 for the first time, for Cases, so it is now included in this analysis. Some of the projections and comparisons to the 1918 Spanish Flu have been updated. As analysis has become more extensive, I acknowledge a tendency to get too "deep in the weeds" in level of detail, so I' have attempted to simplify some of the reporting. You will find two charts replacing detailed narrative for comparison of continental and country data.
The reported surges in cases during December do not appear as widespread as the news would indicate. In fact, as I prepared this report it struck me that there is something of a disconnect between the media reports that suggest that the pandemic is generally out of control and the numbers analyzed. You may not agree with me, but as I go through the numbers, the picture I get is that in some places there are very serious surges, but it is not reflected in the global numbers. That is why I expanded these reports over recent months to compare the U.S. numbers with to her countries and the world.
Of the 21 countries tracked for this analysis, seven were at or above the global level of increase in cases at the end of December (32%): Germany, France, Canada, UK, USA, Russia and Italy. Except for Russia and Canada, the others have been prominent in news reports in December. Six of the 21 were at or above the global increase in deaths at the end of December (24%): Germany, Russia, Italy, USA, Canada, and UK. Germany was far ahead of the others with an increase of 67% in cases and 103% in deaths compared to November. All the other countries saw cases growing at a slower pace, even though their total cases and deaths exceeded the global level.
Thus, my argument that focusing on the hot spots can give news consumers the impression that everywhere things are as bad as the worst, which get the media attention. That makes understanding and empathy difficult. While there are genuine hot spots—places where the situation is extremely dire—there are other places, where many of us live, that are affected more by the threat than the reality of runaway disease and death.
Looking at the December data, the growth in global cases from month to month is actually slowing in rate of increase, so it is important to look at regional and country data to explain the sense that things are out of control. Public officials warned against travel at Thanksgiving in the U.S., and similar warnings went out on a much broader scale for the Christmas holidays in December. We can see evidence of the impact of Thanksgiving surges in the December numbers, but will need to wait for the January numbers to see whether the added travel and increased COVID-fatigue seen around Christmas had an impact, and if so, whether it is global or focused on some countries or regions.
My efforts in this series are not meant to downplay or deny reality, but to provide perspective that looks beyond hype that can actually serve as a kind of misinformation, even if inadvertent. Events like this pandemic are complicated and do not affect all of us (the whole world, in this case) with the same intensity at the same time.
At the end of December there were 83.8-million confirmed COVID-19 cases around the world, an increase of 20.3-million, or 32%, since November.
While the number of cases has increased over the previous month, the rate of increase each month is actually dropping on a global scale: October was 39% higher than September with 12,900 new cases; November was 37% over October, with 17,129 new cases, and December was 32% more than November, with 29,274 cases. How could the rate go down if the numbers are going up? It seems counterintuitive, but consider this: if the rate of increase remained constant at 39% each month, we would have seen global cases at 89.6-million by the end of December, nearly five million more than actually reported.
To date, 1.1% of the world's population of 7.8-billion has been reported as having confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases.
The criteria has evolved somewhat since the pandemic was declared in March. In the state of Illinois, USA, where I live, original reporting included only "confirmed" cases. As testing has expanded, that has expanded in recent months to include "probable" (asymptomatic, non-hospitalized) cases. While the reporting of cases may be subject to definitional ambiguity, the report of deaths is a more concrete number (though there have been arguments that COVID is assigned as the cause of death when it should more rightly be a serious underlying condition triggered by the virus). For the purposes of this report, we have to deal with the numbers as reported.
1.8-million have died—up 352,339 (24%) over November. This represents a mortality rate of 2.2% (deaths as proportion of cases), which is down slightly from 2.3% in November.
The global mortality rate has fallen steadily since we first reported it in September at 3.0%. This is not unexpected since the reporting of cases has increased as testing has accelerated, increasing the gap between reported cases and deaths, lowering the mortality rate. As reported last month, some experts feel the infection rate is as much as ten times higher than the recorded case rate, which would make mortality that much lower. For our purposes, that is not as important as the fact that the most compelling statistic is the death toll. Also, for my analysis, even with differences of opinion on definitions, as long as the methods and criteria remain fairly stable, it provides a means of seeing trends over time.
PERSPECTIVE: The 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic is estimated to have struck 500 million people, 26.3% of the world population of 1.9-billion at that time. By contrast, we're now at 1.1% of the global population. Deaths a century ago have been widely estimated at between 50- and 100-million worldwide, putting the global mortality rate somewhere between 10 and 20-percent. It has been estimated that 675,000 died in the U.S.
IF COVID-19 hit at the same rate as 1918, we would see about 2-billion cases worldwide by the time COVID-19 is over, with the global population now at 7.8-billion—four times what it was in 1918. There would be 200- to 400-million deaths. For the U.S., this would mean cases approaching 90-million and deaths of nearly 9-million and perhaps as high as 18-million.
However, at the present rate of confirmed cases and mortality while the total number of global cases could approach 500 million or more—comparable to 1918 in number, that would be one-quarter of 1918 when taking population growth into account . .. and assuming the pandemic persists as long as the Spanish Flu, which went on in three waves over a two year period. With a vaccine already in early stages of distribution, the end of COVID-19 could come sooner. Like 1918, however, there could be complicating factors such as the mutation in Britain, now discovered in Colorado, that is more highly transmissible (but not necessarily more deadly).
Using the mortality rate of 2.2% in December, total deaths with the above projection of cases, would be over 12-million worldwide, tragic but far below the number reported for 1918 (50-million) with an even wider gap (200 million) when taking population growth into account.
The contrast demonstrates the vast difference in scale between the Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago and COVID-19 now. Key differences are the mitigation efforts and available treatment today (though still leaving the health care system overwhelmed in some areas), and the beginning of vaccine distribution. In addition, in 1918 much of the world was focused on a brutal war among nations (World War I) rather than waging a war against the pandemic, which ran its course and was undoubtedly made much worse by the war, with trans-national troop movements, the close quarters of trench warfare, and large public gatherings supporting or protesting the war.
This analysis covers the five major continents. The population and resultant numbers for Oceana are too small to be significant, so it is not included. Instead of reporting cases-per-million or deaths-per-million, it is easier to grasp those numbers as a proportion of population. Tests and Tests per Million are not reported at the Continental level.
GLOBAL cases increased 32% in December, to 83.8-million; deaths increased 24% to 1.8-million, for a mortality rate of 2.2%, down from 2.3% in November.
Rank | Continents | Cases | Deaths | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | Percent | Number | Own | Change | Number | Change | Mortality | |
Global | 7.8B | 100% | 83.8M | - | 32% | 1,824,915 | 24% | 2.2% |
1 | Asia 4.6B |
59.3% | Europe 23.7M 28.2% |
N America 5.6% |
Asia 40% |
Europe 543,836 29.8% |
Europe 38% |
S America 2.7% |
2 | Africa 1.3B |
17.1% | Asia 23.4M 28.0% |
Europe 3.2% |
Europe 37% |
N America 514,352 28.2% |
N America 26% |
N America 2.5% |
3 | Europe 747.7M |
9.6% | N America 20.7M 24.7% |
S America 2.0% |
N America 28% |
S America 362,733 19.9% |
Africa 26% |
Africa 2.4% |
4 | S America 653.9M |
8.4% | S America 11,143 15.8% |
Asia 0.5% |
Africa 27% |
Asia 337,354 18.5% |
Asia 16% |
Europe 2.3% |
5 | N America 368.9M |
4.7% | Africa 2.7M 3.3% |
Africa 0.2% |
S America 19% |
Africa 65,566 3.6% |
S America 11% |
Asia 1.4% |
"Number" columns include country name, raw number and percentage of the world number.
"Own" is percent of its own population. Change is comparison to previous month.
Shaded cells indicate that value is at or above global figure or percentage of world population for the continent.
It is clear from the chart for December that Europe, North America and South America represent the overall "hot spots," with numbers disproportionate to their population. As pointed out last month, Asia and Europe appear comparable by raw number of cases, but Asia has six times the population of Europe. However, the 40% increase in cases for Asia is worth watching (though its change in deaths is below the global level). It should be noted that numbers for China have not increased since I began monitoring of worldometers data in September.
Even though the rate of change for new cases in Europe was above the global level, it has dropped from 102% in October to 74% in November, and 37% in December. North and South America were both below the global level of 32% in December.
As with the Continental perspective, you will find a chart rather than the detailed narrative used in past reports. I hope you will find this change helpful.
The U.S. (cells highlighted with a red border), remains at the top of cases, deaths, and more positively, in the number of tests. It also continues at the top in the proportion of its own population reported as cases. The level of change for cases, however, is behind Germany, France, Canada and the UK. The level of change in deaths, likewise is below that of Germany, Russia and Italy. Because the U.S. is so strikingly high in cases and deaths, it is notable that its mortality rate—deaths as a proportion of cases—is near the bottom of the 21 countries in our analysis, and below the global rate. More general comments follow the chart.
For four months, (September-December), the highest cases were recorded by the U.S., India, Brazil, and Russia. That is true also for deaths, with the U.S., India and Brazil in the top three rankings each of those four months. Below that the order becomes more mixed each month, reaching down as far as Peru, ranked No. 43 by population, which came in at No. 10 for total deaths at the end of October. The U.S. has been No. 1 in tests for two months, up from No. 2 in September and October. The U.S., China and India have shared the top three rankings in number of tests reported since September. (See the note below the chart about the percentage figure under the number of tests).
Rank | Countries | Cases | Deaths | Tests | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | Rank/% | Number | Own | Change | Number | Change | Mortality | Number | Change | |
Global | 7.8B | 100% | 83.8M | 1.1% | 32% | 1,824,915 | 24% | 2.2% | not tracked | |
1 | China 1.4B |
1 18.4% |
USA 20.4MM 24.4% |
USA 6.1% |
Germany 63% |
USA 354,255 19.4% |
Germany 103% |
Mexico 8.8% |
USA 253.4M 76% |
France 70% |
2 | India 1.4B |
2 17.6% |
India 10.3M 12.3% |
Belgium 5.6% |
France 57% |
Brazil 194,976 10.7% |
Russia 43% |
Ecuador 6.6% |
India 172.0M 12% |
USA 31% |
3 | USA 334M |
3 4.3% |
Brazil 7.7M 9.2% |
Spain 4.1% |
Canada 55% |
India 149,018 8.2$ |
Italy 33% |
Bolivia 5.8% |
China* 160.0M 11% |
Brazil 31% |
4 | Brazil 212.9M |
6 2.7% |
Russia 3.2M 3.8% |
France 4.0% |
UK 53% |
Mexico 124,897 6.8% |
USA 29% |
China* 5.3% |
Russia 90.6M 62% |
Colombia 27% |
5 | Russia 145.9M |
9 1.9% |
France 2.6M 3.1% |
UK 3.7% |
USA 47% |
Italy 74,159 4.1% |
Canada 29% |
Iran 4.6% |
UK 54.9 81% |
UK 26% |
6 | Mexico 129.3M |
10 1.7% |
UK 2.5M 3.0% |
Brazil 3.6% |
Russia 38% |
UK 73,512 4.0% |
UK 26% |
Peru 3.7% |
France 35.0M 54% |
Germany 25% |
7 | Turkey 84.3M |
17 1.1% |
Turkey 2/2M 2.6% |
Argentina 3/6% |
Italy 32% |
France 64,632 3.5% |
France 23% |
Italy 3.5% |
Germany 34.8M 42% |
Mexico 24% |
8 | Iran 83.9M |
18 1.1% |
Italy 2.1M 2.5% |
Italy 3/5% |
Mexico 28% |
Russia 57,019 3.1% |
Mexico 18% |
Belgium 3.0% |
Brazil 28.6M 13% |
Argentina 23% |
9 | Germany 83.8M |
19 1.1% |
Spain 1.9M 2.3% |
Columbia 3.2% |
Iran 27% |
Iran 56,223 3.1 |
Colombia 18% |
UK 3.0% |
Spain 27.0M 58% |
Iran 23% |
10 | UK 67.9M |
21 0.9% |
Germany 1/8M 2/1% |
Chile 3.2% |
Colombia 25% |
Spain 50,837 2.8% |
Belgium 17% |
Chile 2.7% |
Italy 26.6M 44% |
Chile 23% |
11 | France 65.3M |
22 0.8% |
Colombia 1.6M 2.0% |
Peru 3/1% |
Brazil 21% |
Argentina 43,245 2.4% |
Iran 17% |
Canada 2.7% |
Turkey 24.5M 29% |
India 23% |
12 | Italy 60/4M |
23 0.8% |
Argentina 1.6M 1.9% |
Turkey 2/6% |
Argentina 15% |
Colombia 43,213 2.4% |
Spain 13% |
Argentina 2.7% |
Canada 13.8M 37% |
Italy 21% |
13 | Colombia 50.9M |
29 0.7% |
Mexico 1.4M 1.7% |
Russia 2.2% |
Belgium 12% |
Peru 37,680 2.1% |
Brazil 13% |
Colombia 2.6% |
Colombia 8.1M 16% |
Canada 21% |
14 | Spain 46.8M |
30 0.6% |
Iran 1.2M 1.5% |
Germany 2/1% |
Spain 11% |
Germany 34,182 1.9% |
Argentina 12% |
Spain 2.6% |
Iran 7.5M 9% |
Russia 19% |
15 | Argentina 46.8M |
32 0.6% |
Peru 1.0M 1.2% |
Canada 1.5% |
Chile 10% |
Turkey 20,881 1.1% |
India 8% |
Brazil 2.5% |
Belgium 6.9M 59% |
Spain 17% |
16 | Canada 37.7M |
39 0.5% |
Belgium 644K 0.8% |
Iran 1.5% |
Ecuador 10% |
Belgium 19,441 1.1% |
Chile 8% |
France 2.5% |
Chile 6.5M 34% |
Belgium 17% |
17 | Peru 32.9M |
43 0.4% |
Chile 609K 0.7% |
Bolivia 1/4% |
Bolivia 9% |
Chile 16,608 0.9% |
Peru 5% |
Germany 2.0% |
Peru 5.5M 17% |
Peru 8% |
18 | Chile 19.1M |
63 0.2% |
Canada 581K 0.7% |
Ecuador 1.2% |
India 9% |
Canada 15,606 0.9% |
Ecuador 4% |
Russia 1.8% |
Argentina 4.8M 11% |
China* 0% |
19 | Ecuador 17.6M |
67 0.2% |
Ecuador 212K 0.3% |
Mexico 1.1% |
Peru 9% |
Ecuador 14,034 0.8% |
Bolivia 2% |
USA 1.7% |
Mexico 3.6M 3% |
Ecuador 0% |
20 | Bolivia 11.7M |
80 0.1% |
Bolivia 158K 0.2% |
India 0.7% |
China* 0% |
Bolivia 9,149 0.5% |
China 0% |
India 1.4% |
Ecuador 800K 5% |
Bolivia 0% |
21 | Belgium 11.6M |
81 0.1% |
China* 87K 0.0% |
China* 0.0% |
Turkey new |
China* 4,634 0.3% |
Turkey new |
Turkey 0.9% |
Bolivia 400K 3% |
Turkey new |
"Number" columns include percentage of world cases and deaths. "Own" is percent of its own population.
"Tests" includes the reported total number of tests and the percentage signifies that number as a proportion of the total population.
That does not, however, mean that that number of people have been tested. Because of multiple tests, the actual number tested will be less.
Shaded cells indicate that value is at or above global figure or percentage of world population for continent.
* China has not reported any updated data
The shading indicates countries at or above the global level, shown in the first row. Because the countries tracked are or have been high on the list of 218 countries reported by worldometers, it is not surprising that most or all of the 21 countries reported here will be at or above the global level. That is certainly the situation with the number of cases and deaths, as well as the proportion of cases against each country's own population. More significant is the amount of change, for both cases and deaths, which is not tied as tightly to the global level, so from month to month we will be able to observe shifting patterns, particularly in looking for surges. Indeed, the highest levels of increase in cases and deaths for December are seen in Europe and North America, where we have heard reports of surges. .
According to the CDC, the 10 leading causes of death in 2018 (the latest year available) were as follows. These total just over 2-million deaths per year. COVID death milestones are shown in red. Even if the final toll by the end of 2020 is well below worst-case projections (upwards of 2-million deaths), it is striking how rapid the rise in deaths has been since early March.
updated since the last report with data for 2018—most are up from 2017, but all remain in the same order of ranking
There are those who question the veracity of assigning COVID-19 to many deaths among people with underlying conditions, such as heart and respiratory disease. Still others have suggested a rise in other health issues, including death, because of deferred health care. It will be years before all of that is sorted out. For my purposes here, I can only go by the most reliable sources available.
(Data from worldometers.info).
Rank | Country | Population | Share of World Population |
Density People per square km |
Urban Population |
Median Age |
WORLD | 7.82B | 100% | -- | -- | -- | |
Top 10 Countries by Population, plus Five Major Continents See lists of countries by continent |
||||||
- | ASIA | 4.64B | 59.3% | 150 | 51 countries | 32 |
1 | China | 1.44B | 18.4% | 153 | 61% | 38 |
2 | India | 1.38B | 17.7% | 454 | 35% | 28 |
- | AFRICA | 1.34BM | 17.1% | 45 | 59 countries | 20 |
- | EUROPE | 747.7M | 9.6% | 34 | 44 countries | 43 |
- | S AMERICA | 653.8M | 8.4% | 32 | 50 countries | 31 |
- | N AMERICA | 368.9M | 4.7% | 29 | 5 countries | 39 |
3 | USA | 331.5M | 4.3% | 36 | 83% | 38 |
4 | Indonesia* | 274.5M | 3.5% | 151 | 56% | 30 |
5 | Pakistan* | 220.9M | 2.8% | 287 | 35% | 23 |
6 | Brazil | 212.9M | 2.7% | 25 | 88% | 33 |
7 | Nigeria* | 206.1M | 2.6% | 226 | 52% | 18 |
8 | Bangladesh* | 165.2M | 2.1% | 1,265 | 39% | 28 |
9 | Russia | 145.9M | 1.9% | 9 | 74% | 40 |
10 | Mexico | 129.3M | 1.7% | 66 | 84% | 29 |
*these countries do not appear in the details because they have not yet reached a high enough threshold to be included Other Countries included in Analysis most have been in top 10 of one or more categories covered in this report at least one month since October 2020 |
||||||
Rank | Country | Population | Share of World Population |
Density People per square km |
Urban Population |
Median Age |
17 | Turkey | 84.3M | 1.1% | 110 | 76% | 32 |
18 | Iran | 83.9M | 1.1% | 52 | 76% | 32 |
19 | Germany | 83.8M | 1.1% | 240 | 76% | 46 |
21 | United Kingdom | 67.9M | 0.9% | 281 | 83% | 40 |
22 | France | 65.3M | 0.8% | 119 | 82% | 42 |
23 | Italy | 60.4M | 0.8% | 206 | 69% | 47 |
29 | Colombia | 50.9M | 0.7% | 46 | 80% | 31 |
30 | Spain | 46.8M | 0.6% | 94 | 80% | 45 |
32 | Argentina | 45.2M | 0.6% | 17 | 93% | 32 |
39 | Canada | 37.7M | 0.5% | 4 | 81% | 41 |
43 | Peru | 32.9M | 0.4% | 26 | 79% | 31 |
63 | Chile | 19.1M | 0.2% | 26 | 85% | 35 |
67 | Ecuador | 17.6M | 0.2% | 71 | 63% | 28 |
80 | Bolivia | 11.7M | 0.1% | 11 | 69% | 26 |
81 | Belgium | 11.6M | 0.1% | 383 | 98% | 42 |
This article was also posted on SeniorLifestyle, which I edit
Search all articles by Stu Johnson
Stu Johnson is owner of Stuart Johnson & Associates, a communications consultancy in Wheaton, Illinois focused on "making information make sense."
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Posted: January 8, 2021 Accessed 2,840 times
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Category: Information / Topics: History • Information • Statistics • Trends
by Stu Johnson
Posted: January 8, 2021
An updated look at the COVID statistics comparing the U.S. to the world…
Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in perspective (Number 6)
This series was spawned by my reaction to reporting on the COVID-19 pandemic that focused on raw numbers. Big numbers are impressive, even frightening, and hard to comprehend, but rarely have we been given a context that helps lead to better understanding of the numbers or how to make comparisons between the U.S. and the rest of the world. This series has turned from occasional pieces to a monthly summary setting the U.S. numbers in global perspective. This analysis is based on data from worldometers.info.
Report Sections:
• December at-a-glance • Scope of This Report
• Where We Are Now (Global, Continental and Country Analysis)
• COVID Deaths Compared to the Leading Causes of Death in the U.S.
• Profile of Monitored Continents & Countries
From the worldometers website we track the following Categories:
Instead of reporting Cases per Million and Deaths per Million directly, I try to put raw numbers in the perspective of several key measures. These are a different way of expressing "per Million" statistics, but it seems easier to grasp when you see it in a table.
Our analysis covers countries that have appeared in the top-10 of the worldometers categories since September 2020. This includes most of the world's largest countries as well as some that are much smaller. A chart profiling the monitored countries and the five major continents will be found at the end of this report.
Turkey appeared in the top-10 for the first time, for Cases, so it is now included in this analysis. Some of the projections and comparisons to the 1918 Spanish Flu have been updated. As analysis has become more extensive, I acknowledge a tendency to get too "deep in the weeds" in level of detail, so I' have attempted to simplify some of the reporting. You will find two charts replacing detailed narrative for comparison of continental and country data.
The reported surges in cases during December do not appear as widespread as the news would indicate. In fact, as I prepared this report it struck me that there is something of a disconnect between the media reports that suggest that the pandemic is generally out of control and the numbers analyzed. You may not agree with me, but as I go through the numbers, the picture I get is that in some places there are very serious surges, but it is not reflected in the global numbers. That is why I expanded these reports over recent months to compare the U.S. numbers with to her countries and the world.
Of the 21 countries tracked for this analysis, seven were at or above the global level of increase in cases at the end of December (32%): Germany, France, Canada, UK, USA, Russia and Italy. Except for Russia and Canada, the others have been prominent in news reports in December. Six of the 21 were at or above the global increase in deaths at the end of December (24%): Germany, Russia, Italy, USA, Canada, and UK. Germany was far ahead of the others with an increase of 67% in cases and 103% in deaths compared to November. All the other countries saw cases growing at a slower pace, even though their total cases and deaths exceeded the global level.
Thus, my argument that focusing on the hot spots can give news consumers the impression that everywhere things are as bad as the worst, which get the media attention. That makes understanding and empathy difficult. While there are genuine hot spots—places where the situation is extremely dire—there are other places, where many of us live, that are affected more by the threat than the reality of runaway disease and death.
Looking at the December data, the growth in global cases from month to month is actually slowing in rate of increase, so it is important to look at regional and country data to explain the sense that things are out of control. Public officials warned against travel at Thanksgiving in the U.S., and similar warnings went out on a much broader scale for the Christmas holidays in December. We can see evidence of the impact of Thanksgiving surges in the December numbers, but will need to wait for the January numbers to see whether the added travel and increased COVID-fatigue seen around Christmas had an impact, and if so, whether it is global or focused on some countries or regions.
My efforts in this series are not meant to downplay or deny reality, but to provide perspective that looks beyond hype that can actually serve as a kind of misinformation, even if inadvertent. Events like this pandemic are complicated and do not affect all of us (the whole world, in this case) with the same intensity at the same time.
At the end of December there were 83.8-million confirmed COVID-19 cases around the world, an increase of 20.3-million, or 32%, since November.
While the number of cases has increased over the previous month, the rate of increase each month is actually dropping on a global scale: October was 39% higher than September with 12,900 new cases; November was 37% over October, with 17,129 new cases, and December was 32% more than November, with 29,274 cases. How could the rate go down if the numbers are going up? It seems counterintuitive, but consider this: if the rate of increase remained constant at 39% each month, we would have seen global cases at 89.6-million by the end of December, nearly five million more than actually reported.
To date, 1.1% of the world's population of 7.8-billion has been reported as having confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases.
The criteria has evolved somewhat since the pandemic was declared in March. In the state of Illinois, USA, where I live, original reporting included only "confirmed" cases. As testing has expanded, that has expanded in recent months to include "probable" (asymptomatic, non-hospitalized) cases. While the reporting of cases may be subject to definitional ambiguity, the report of deaths is a more concrete number (though there have been arguments that COVID is assigned as the cause of death when it should more rightly be a serious underlying condition triggered by the virus). For the purposes of this report, we have to deal with the numbers as reported.
1.8-million have died—up 352,339 (24%) over November. This represents a mortality rate of 2.2% (deaths as proportion of cases), which is down slightly from 2.3% in November.
The global mortality rate has fallen steadily since we first reported it in September at 3.0%. This is not unexpected since the reporting of cases has increased as testing has accelerated, increasing the gap between reported cases and deaths, lowering the mortality rate. As reported last month, some experts feel the infection rate is as much as ten times higher than the recorded case rate, which would make mortality that much lower. For our purposes, that is not as important as the fact that the most compelling statistic is the death toll. Also, for my analysis, even with differences of opinion on definitions, as long as the methods and criteria remain fairly stable, it provides a means of seeing trends over time.
PERSPECTIVE: The 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic is estimated to have struck 500 million people, 26.3% of the world population of 1.9-billion at that time. By contrast, we're now at 1.1% of the global population. Deaths a century ago have been widely estimated at between 50- and 100-million worldwide, putting the global mortality rate somewhere between 10 and 20-percent. It has been estimated that 675,000 died in the U.S.
IF COVID-19 hit at the same rate as 1918, we would see about 2-billion cases worldwide by the time COVID-19 is over, with the global population now at 7.8-billion—four times what it was in 1918. There would be 200- to 400-million deaths. For the U.S., this would mean cases approaching 90-million and deaths of nearly 9-million and perhaps as high as 18-million.
However, at the present rate of confirmed cases and mortality while the total number of global cases could approach 500 million or more—comparable to 1918 in number, that would be one-quarter of 1918 when taking population growth into account . .. and assuming the pandemic persists as long as the Spanish Flu, which went on in three waves over a two year period. With a vaccine already in early stages of distribution, the end of COVID-19 could come sooner. Like 1918, however, there could be complicating factors such as the mutation in Britain, now discovered in Colorado, that is more highly transmissible (but not necessarily more deadly).
Using the mortality rate of 2.2% in December, total deaths with the above projection of cases, would be over 12-million worldwide, tragic but far below the number reported for 1918 (50-million) with an even wider gap (200 million) when taking population growth into account.
The contrast demonstrates the vast difference in scale between the Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago and COVID-19 now. Key differences are the mitigation efforts and available treatment today (though still leaving the health care system overwhelmed in some areas), and the beginning of vaccine distribution. In addition, in 1918 much of the world was focused on a brutal war among nations (World War I) rather than waging a war against the pandemic, which ran its course and was undoubtedly made much worse by the war, with trans-national troop movements, the close quarters of trench warfare, and large public gatherings supporting or protesting the war.
This analysis covers the five major continents. The population and resultant numbers for Oceana are too small to be significant, so it is not included. Instead of reporting cases-per-million or deaths-per-million, it is easier to grasp those numbers as a proportion of population. Tests and Tests per Million are not reported at the Continental level.
GLOBAL cases increased 32% in December, to 83.8-million; deaths increased 24% to 1.8-million, for a mortality rate of 2.2%, down from 2.3% in November.
Rank | Continents | Cases | Deaths | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | Percent | Number | Own | Change | Number | Change | Mortality | |
Global | 7.8B | 100% | 83.8M | - | 32% | 1,824,915 | 24% | 2.2% |
1 | Asia 4.6B |
59.3% | Europe 23.7M 28.2% |
N America 5.6% |
Asia 40% |
Europe 543,836 29.8% |
Europe 38% |
S America 2.7% |
2 | Africa 1.3B |
17.1% | Asia 23.4M 28.0% |
Europe 3.2% |
Europe 37% |
N America 514,352 28.2% |
N America 26% |
N America 2.5% |
3 | Europe 747.7M |
9.6% | N America 20.7M 24.7% |
S America 2.0% |
N America 28% |
S America 362,733 19.9% |
Africa 26% |
Africa 2.4% |
4 | S America 653.9M |
8.4% | S America 11,143 15.8% |
Asia 0.5% |
Africa 27% |
Asia 337,354 18.5% |
Asia 16% |
Europe 2.3% |
5 | N America 368.9M |
4.7% | Africa 2.7M 3.3% |
Africa 0.2% |
S America 19% |
Africa 65,566 3.6% |
S America 11% |
Asia 1.4% |
"Number" columns include country name, raw number and percentage of the world number.
"Own" is percent of its own population. Change is comparison to previous month.
Shaded cells indicate that value is at or above global figure or percentage of world population for the continent.
It is clear from the chart for December that Europe, North America and South America represent the overall "hot spots," with numbers disproportionate to their population. As pointed out last month, Asia and Europe appear comparable by raw number of cases, but Asia has six times the population of Europe. However, the 40% increase in cases for Asia is worth watching (though its change in deaths is below the global level). It should be noted that numbers for China have not increased since I began monitoring of worldometers data in September.
Even though the rate of change for new cases in Europe was above the global level, it has dropped from 102% in October to 74% in November, and 37% in December. North and South America were both below the global level of 32% in December.
As with the Continental perspective, you will find a chart rather than the detailed narrative used in past reports. I hope you will find this change helpful.
The U.S. (cells highlighted with a red border), remains at the top of cases, deaths, and more positively, in the number of tests. It also continues at the top in the proportion of its own population reported as cases. The level of change for cases, however, is behind Germany, France, Canada and the UK. The level of change in deaths, likewise is below that of Germany, Russia and Italy. Because the U.S. is so strikingly high in cases and deaths, it is notable that its mortality rate—deaths as a proportion of cases—is near the bottom of the 21 countries in our analysis, and below the global rate. More general comments follow the chart.
For four months, (September-December), the highest cases were recorded by the U.S., India, Brazil, and Russia. That is true also for deaths, with the U.S., India and Brazil in the top three rankings each of those four months. Below that the order becomes more mixed each month, reaching down as far as Peru, ranked No. 43 by population, which came in at No. 10 for total deaths at the end of October. The U.S. has been No. 1 in tests for two months, up from No. 2 in September and October. The U.S., China and India have shared the top three rankings in number of tests reported since September. (See the note below the chart about the percentage figure under the number of tests).
Rank | Countries | Cases | Deaths | Tests | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | Rank/% | Number | Own | Change | Number | Change | Mortality | Number | Change | |
Global | 7.8B | 100% | 83.8M | 1.1% | 32% | 1,824,915 | 24% | 2.2% | not tracked | |
1 | China 1.4B |
1 18.4% |
USA 20.4MM 24.4% |
USA 6.1% |
Germany 63% |
USA 354,255 19.4% |
Germany 103% |
Mexico 8.8% |
USA 253.4M 76% |
France 70% |
2 | India 1.4B |
2 17.6% |
India 10.3M 12.3% |
Belgium 5.6% |
France 57% |
Brazil 194,976 10.7% |
Russia 43% |
Ecuador 6.6% |
India 172.0M 12% |
USA 31% |
3 | USA 334M |
3 4.3% |
Brazil 7.7M 9.2% |
Spain 4.1% |
Canada 55% |
India 149,018 8.2$ |
Italy 33% |
Bolivia 5.8% |
China* 160.0M 11% |
Brazil 31% |
4 | Brazil 212.9M |
6 2.7% |
Russia 3.2M 3.8% |
France 4.0% |
UK 53% |
Mexico 124,897 6.8% |
USA 29% |
China* 5.3% |
Russia 90.6M 62% |
Colombia 27% |
5 | Russia 145.9M |
9 1.9% |
France 2.6M 3.1% |
UK 3.7% |
USA 47% |
Italy 74,159 4.1% |
Canada 29% |
Iran 4.6% |
UK 54.9 81% |
UK 26% |
6 | Mexico 129.3M |
10 1.7% |
UK 2.5M 3.0% |
Brazil 3.6% |
Russia 38% |
UK 73,512 4.0% |
UK 26% |
Peru 3.7% |
France 35.0M 54% |
Germany 25% |
7 | Turkey 84.3M |
17 1.1% |
Turkey 2/2M 2.6% |
Argentina 3/6% |
Italy 32% |
France 64,632 3.5% |
France 23% |
Italy 3.5% |
Germany 34.8M 42% |
Mexico 24% |
8 | Iran 83.9M |
18 1.1% |
Italy 2.1M 2.5% |
Italy 3/5% |
Mexico 28% |
Russia 57,019 3.1% |
Mexico 18% |
Belgium 3.0% |
Brazil 28.6M 13% |
Argentina 23% |
9 | Germany 83.8M |
19 1.1% |
Spain 1.9M 2.3% |
Columbia 3.2% |
Iran 27% |
Iran 56,223 3.1 |
Colombia 18% |
UK 3.0% |
Spain 27.0M 58% |
Iran 23% |
10 | UK 67.9M |
21 0.9% |
Germany 1/8M 2/1% |
Chile 3.2% |
Colombia 25% |
Spain 50,837 2.8% |
Belgium 17% |
Chile 2.7% |
Italy 26.6M 44% |
Chile 23% |
11 | France 65.3M |
22 0.8% |
Colombia 1.6M 2.0% |
Peru 3/1% |
Brazil 21% |
Argentina 43,245 2.4% |
Iran 17% |
Canada 2.7% |
Turkey 24.5M 29% |
India 23% |
12 | Italy 60/4M |
23 0.8% |
Argentina 1.6M 1.9% |
Turkey 2/6% |
Argentina 15% |
Colombia 43,213 2.4% |
Spain 13% |
Argentina 2.7% |
Canada 13.8M 37% |
Italy 21% |
13 | Colombia 50.9M |
29 0.7% |
Mexico 1.4M 1.7% |
Russia 2.2% |
Belgium 12% |
Peru 37,680 2.1% |
Brazil 13% |
Colombia 2.6% |
Colombia 8.1M 16% |
Canada 21% |
14 | Spain 46.8M |
30 0.6% |
Iran 1.2M 1.5% |
Germany 2/1% |
Spain 11% |
Germany 34,182 1.9% |
Argentina 12% |
Spain 2.6% |
Iran 7.5M 9% |
Russia 19% |
15 | Argentina 46.8M |
32 0.6% |
Peru 1.0M 1.2% |
Canada 1.5% |
Chile 10% |
Turkey 20,881 1.1% |
India 8% |
Brazil 2.5% |
Belgium 6.9M 59% |
Spain 17% |
16 | Canada 37.7M |
39 0.5% |
Belgium 644K 0.8% |
Iran 1.5% |
Ecuador 10% |
Belgium 19,441 1.1% |
Chile 8% |
France 2.5% |
Chile 6.5M 34% |
Belgium 17% |
17 | Peru 32.9M |
43 0.4% |
Chile 609K 0.7% |
Bolivia 1/4% |
Bolivia 9% |
Chile 16,608 0.9% |
Peru 5% |
Germany 2.0% |
Peru 5.5M 17% |
Peru 8% |
18 | Chile 19.1M |
63 0.2% |
Canada 581K 0.7% |
Ecuador 1.2% |
India 9% |
Canada 15,606 0.9% |
Ecuador 4% |
Russia 1.8% |
Argentina 4.8M 11% |
China* 0% |
19 | Ecuador 17.6M |
67 0.2% |
Ecuador 212K 0.3% |
Mexico 1.1% |
Peru 9% |
Ecuador 14,034 0.8% |
Bolivia 2% |
USA 1.7% |
Mexico 3.6M 3% |
Ecuador 0% |
20 | Bolivia 11.7M |
80 0.1% |
Bolivia 158K 0.2% |
India 0.7% |
China* 0% |
Bolivia 9,149 0.5% |
China 0% |
India 1.4% |
Ecuador 800K 5% |
Bolivia 0% |
21 | Belgium 11.6M |
81 0.1% |
China* 87K 0.0% |
China* 0.0% |
Turkey new |
China* 4,634 0.3% |
Turkey new |
Turkey 0.9% |
Bolivia 400K 3% |
Turkey new |
"Number" columns include percentage of world cases and deaths. "Own" is percent of its own population.
"Tests" includes the reported total number of tests and the percentage signifies that number as a proportion of the total population.
That does not, however, mean that that number of people have been tested. Because of multiple tests, the actual number tested will be less.
Shaded cells indicate that value is at or above global figure or percentage of world population for continent.
* China has not reported any updated data
The shading indicates countries at or above the global level, shown in the first row. Because the countries tracked are or have been high on the list of 218 countries reported by worldometers, it is not surprising that most or all of the 21 countries reported here will be at or above the global level. That is certainly the situation with the number of cases and deaths, as well as the proportion of cases against each country's own population. More significant is the amount of change, for both cases and deaths, which is not tied as tightly to the global level, so from month to month we will be able to observe shifting patterns, particularly in looking for surges. Indeed, the highest levels of increase in cases and deaths for December are seen in Europe and North America, where we have heard reports of surges. .
According to the CDC, the 10 leading causes of death in 2018 (the latest year available) were as follows. These total just over 2-million deaths per year. COVID death milestones are shown in red. Even if the final toll by the end of 2020 is well below worst-case projections (upwards of 2-million deaths), it is striking how rapid the rise in deaths has been since early March.
updated since the last report with data for 2018—most are up from 2017, but all remain in the same order of ranking
There are those who question the veracity of assigning COVID-19 to many deaths among people with underlying conditions, such as heart and respiratory disease. Still others have suggested a rise in other health issues, including death, because of deferred health care. It will be years before all of that is sorted out. For my purposes here, I can only go by the most reliable sources available.
(Data from worldometers.info).
Rank | Country | Population | Share of World Population |
Density People per square km |
Urban Population |
Median Age |
WORLD | 7.82B | 100% | -- | -- | -- | |
Top 10 Countries by Population, plus Five Major Continents See lists of countries by continent |
||||||
- | ASIA | 4.64B | 59.3% | 150 | 51 countries | 32 |
1 | China | 1.44B | 18.4% | 153 | 61% | 38 |
2 | India | 1.38B | 17.7% | 454 | 35% | 28 |
- | AFRICA | 1.34BM | 17.1% | 45 | 59 countries | 20 |
- | EUROPE | 747.7M | 9.6% | 34 | 44 countries | 43 |
- | S AMERICA | 653.8M | 8.4% | 32 | 50 countries | 31 |
- | N AMERICA | 368.9M | 4.7% | 29 | 5 countries | 39 |
3 | USA | 331.5M | 4.3% | 36 | 83% | 38 |
4 | Indonesia* | 274.5M | 3.5% | 151 | 56% | 30 |
5 | Pakistan* | 220.9M | 2.8% | 287 | 35% | 23 |
6 | Brazil | 212.9M | 2.7% | 25 | 88% | 33 |
7 | Nigeria* | 206.1M | 2.6% | 226 | 52% | 18 |
8 | Bangladesh* | 165.2M | 2.1% | 1,265 | 39% | 28 |
9 | Russia | 145.9M | 1.9% | 9 | 74% | 40 |
10 | Mexico | 129.3M | 1.7% | 66 | 84% | 29 |
*these countries do not appear in the details because they have not yet reached a high enough threshold to be included Other Countries included in Analysis most have been in top 10 of one or more categories covered in this report at least one month since October 2020 |
||||||
Rank | Country | Population | Share of World Population |
Density People per square km |
Urban Population |
Median Age |
17 | Turkey | 84.3M | 1.1% | 110 | 76% | 32 |
18 | Iran | 83.9M | 1.1% | 52 | 76% | 32 |
19 | Germany | 83.8M | 1.1% | 240 | 76% | 46 |
21 | United Kingdom | 67.9M | 0.9% | 281 | 83% | 40 |
22 | France | 65.3M | 0.8% | 119 | 82% | 42 |
23 | Italy | 60.4M | 0.8% | 206 | 69% | 47 |
29 | Colombia | 50.9M | 0.7% | 46 | 80% | 31 |
30 | Spain | 46.8M | 0.6% | 94 | 80% | 45 |
32 | Argentina | 45.2M | 0.6% | 17 | 93% | 32 |
39 | Canada | 37.7M | 0.5% | 4 | 81% | 41 |
43 | Peru | 32.9M | 0.4% | 26 | 79% | 31 |
63 | Chile | 19.1M | 0.2% | 26 | 85% | 35 |
67 | Ecuador | 17.6M | 0.2% | 71 | 63% | 28 |
80 | Bolivia | 11.7M | 0.1% | 11 | 69% | 26 |
81 | Belgium | 11.6M | 0.1% | 383 | 98% | 42 |
This article was also posted on SeniorLifestyle, which I edit
Search all articles by Stu Johnson
Stu Johnson is owner of Stuart Johnson & Associates, a communications consultancy in Wheaton, Illinois focused on "making information make sense."
• E-mail the author (moc.setaicossajs@uts*)* For web-based email, you may need to copy and paste the address yourself.
Posted: January 8, 2021 Accessed 2,841 times
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