Category: Information / Topics: Demographics • Statistics • Trends
by Stu Johnson
Posted: November 6, 2020
October 31 update comparing the U.S. with other countries…
This is the fourth in a series of reflections aimed at putting what we know about the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic in perspective. The first, "Ode to Joy," posted April 9, looked at examples of the human spirit rising to the challenges of the pandemic. The second, "About Those Numbers," posted May 19, looked at projections, reporting of milestones, and historical comparisons. The third, "Another Milestone," posted September 28, looked at the COVID numbers as American deaths passed the 200,000 mark. This report uses a similar format to that report, comparing different countries one month later.
This report is an update of the last one in this series (see links above). The analysis compares data for October 31 with the last report, September 28 (that date was used because it was close to the U.S. death rate passing the 200,000 mark, which now makes it appropriate to make ongoing updates at the end of each month).
While anticipated in the cautious predictions of some experts, a global surge in COVID infections began to occur in the past two weeks,catching some by surprise and forcing many governments to impose new social restrictions—in some cases walking back to the severe lock-downs of the early days of the pandemic in the spring.
When I wrote in May, there were hopeful signs that the daily numbers of cases and deaths were trending down, but then as states began to open (especially those without strict mitigation requirements) and as a new school year approached, areas of resurgence began to appear. Indeed, university campuses, with all their careful planning to stem an outbreak, were ambushed by the death-defying quest to party.
In my own area, an exception has been Wheaton College, a Christian liberal arts institution of about 2,400 resident students, which is always at the bottom of lists of party schools. The college converted part of a remote campus location to serve as a quarantine center if needed, has required testing, use of a hybrid model of in-person and remote learning, and emphasized strict mitigation efforts in housing, dining and other campus activities. To encourage small, safe gatherings, the college installed fire pits around the campus, even supplying fire wood and ingredients for S'mores (Wheaton's answer to binge drinking!). Within the last month, it is my understanding that a large campus-wide COVID test revealed only one student and one staff member who tested positive.
A report on the PBS News Hour of a small college in Maine about the size of Wheaton showed similar good results. My daughter, who works at Northwest University in Kirkland, Washington, a slightly smaller campus, reports similar results with its own adaptation to mitigation while maintaining a resident student population. So, it is possible to prevent or greatly reduce chances of an outbreak, though it appears to be most successful in institutions that are far smaller and more homogeneous in culture than very large university campuses. (See the National Geographic report "The colleges with virtually no coronavirus cases")
Since late summer the general upward trend has intensified and some states (like Illinois, where I live) have responded by re-imposing bans on bars and indoor dining in designated regions (the state is now divided into 11 zones). Those businesses affected are crying foul and pointing to an increase in larger and less-protected, even defiant, gatherings of friends and family as a deeper problem. In the area where I live several restaurants have defied the governor's order and remain open, accusing the governor of arbitrary judgment in allowing other businesses to remain open..
At least one restaurant near us has sued the governor and gotten a court-approved restraining order allowing it to remain open while the suit advances. Some local authorities have indicated they will not enforce the governor's order on indoor dining. As far as I know, those restaurants that have chosen to continue indoor dining have not flouted mitigation requirements but in some cases intensified to promote themselves as a safe place to gather. Interestingly, one factor that is gaining attention is the quality of indoor air handling, with high levels of air exchange and use of highest quality air filters, and some establishments have begun to include air quality in promoting their own safety.
Despite good examples, all of this represents a growing desire of people to gather, some in defiance of the mitigation efforts that are needed to effectively stem the advance of COVID-19. That raises serious questions of the direction we are headed as we move into cooler weather and the normal flu season, as well as traditional times of gathering during Thanksgiving and the longer Christmas-New Year's holiday season. The numbers could, indeed, get far worse. The one glimmer of good news is that while infections climb in the U.S., the death rate is not rising as rapidly. This is reflected in growing infections among the 15-29 year-old group, where illness may be less severe and recovery more certain. That does not diminish the concern of health care systems in areas of intense surges who fear for their ability to manage a rapid rise in those needing hospitalization.
So, let's review the current nationwide numbers. Once again, I will look at the data from two viewpoints: how the COVID-19 death rate in the U.S, compares to the 10 leading causes of death in America, and how the U.S. compares to other countries in the world.
According to the CDC, the 10 leading causes of death in 2017 (the latest year available) were as follows. COVID death milestones are shown in red. Even if the final toll by the end of 2020 is well below worst-case projections (upwards of 2-million deaths), it is striking how rapid the rise in deaths has been since early March.
COVID-19 death "milestones" (2020) against the 10 leading causes of death in America (2017)
There are those who question the veracity of assigning COVID-19 to many deaths among people with underlying conditions, such as heart and respiratory disease. Still others have suggested a rise in other health issues, including death, because of deferred health care. It will be years before all of that is sorted out. For my purposes here, I can only go by the most reliable sources available.
Is the U.S. the worst in the world in terms of COVID-19 statistics? Overall, we are being hit harder by COVID than many other countries, sometimes with well-deserved criticism for the free-wheeling, anti-establishment, "cowboy" stereotype through which much of the world views the United States. However, in recent weeks there has been news of surges in Europe and other parts of the world.
To help frame the analysis that follows, consider a quick profile of a range of different countries that appear near the top of the measures included. (Data from worldometers.com as of September 28, 2020, with several additional countries and corrections of density numbers as of October 31, 2020).
Rank | Country | Population | Share of World Population | Density People per square km | Urban Population | Median Age |
WORLD | 7.82B | 100% | -- | -- | -- | |
Top 10 Countries by Population, and Europe | ||||||
1 | China | 1.44B | 18.4% | 153 | 61% | 38 |
2 | India | 1.38B | 17.7% | 454 | 35% | 28 |
- | Europe | 747.7M | 9.6% | 44 countries | ||
3 | USA | 331.5M | 4.3% | 36 | 83% | 38 |
4 | Indonesia | 274.5M | 3.5% | 151 | 56% | 30 |
5 | Pakistan | 220.9M | 2.8% | 287 | 35% | 23 |
6 | Brazil | 212.9M | 2.7% | 25 | 88% | 33 |
7 | Nigeria | 206.1M | 2.6% | 226 | 52% | 18 |
8 | Bangladesh | 165.2M | 2.1% | 1,265 | 39% | 28 |
9 | Russia | 145.9M | 1.9% | 9 | 74% | 40 |
10 | Mexico | 129.3M | 1.7% | 66 | 84% | 29 |
Other Countries included in Analysis most have been in top 20 of one or more categories covered | ||||||
18 | Iran | 83.9M | 1.1% | 52 | 76% | 32 |
19 | Germany | 83.8M | 1.1% | 240 | 76% | 46 |
21 | United Kingdom | 67.9M | 0.9% | 281 | 83% | 40 |
22 | France | 65.3M | 0.8% | 119 | 82% | 42 |
23 | Italy | 60.4M | 0.8% | 206 | 69% | 47 |
25 | South Africa | 58.3M | 0.7% | 49 | 67% | 28 |
29 | Colombia | 50.9M | 0.7% | 46 | 80% | 31 |
30 | Spain | 46.8M | 0.6% | 94 | 80% | 45 |
32 | Argentina | 45.2M | 0.6% | 17 | 93% | 32 |
36 | Iraq | 40.3M | 0.6% | 93 | 73% | 21 |
39 | Canada | 37.7M | 0.5% | 4 | 81% | 41 |
43 | Peru | 32.9M | 0.4% | 26 | 79% | 31 |
63 | Chile | 19.1M | 0.2% | 26 | 85% | 35 |
67 | Ecuador | 17.6M | 0.2% | 71 | 63% | 28 |
80 | Bolivia | 11.7M | 0.1% | 11 | 69% | 26 |
81 | Belgium | 11.6M | 0.1% | 383 | 98% | 42 |
Here is the latest (October 31) from worldometers.info, which reveals a complicated mix of cases versus population, mortality rates among those who do become infected, testing levels and other factors.
It does show how one can cherry pick statistics to some extent to support a point of view. As stated in my previous articles, raw numbers can be powerful but somewhat misleading, so it is necessary to compare them with rates and shares, which the worldmeter data provides:
Remember, this is a snapshot of a particular day (October 31), so running the reports again in the future will change both the numbers and the rankings. The threshold for highlighting changes in each category was selected to easily point out the most significant changes.
I am admittedly a number cruncher and pattern seeker, so there are two broad conclusions to make at this point during the COVID-19 pandemic.
First, it does not look like COVID-19 will come anywhere near the truly apocalyptic toll of the Spanish Flu a century ago. That was exacerbated by a world war, which in many ways pushed the pandemic itself into the background. Together, the war and flu accounted for 72-million to perhaps 100-million deaths, roughly 4% of the world population at the time.
Second while the U.S. mortality rate is relatively low (down to 2.5% in October, compared to 2.9% in September), the U.S. so far is poised to come out of COVID-19 looking much worse than many other countries because the number of cases is so high. A lot of blame is heaped on the Trump administration, which may be deserved, but we also have to account for significant differences in responses by state and region. In some respects our federal republic looks like 50 different countries and the profiles above show how different they can be.
I have tried to help guide you through some of the numbers to add perspective and an understanding of how to read the numbers.
Moving ahead into the potentially dangerous winter months will require more resolve than we've demonstrated to date—and sadly I don't see reasons to be very optimistic right now. America, prove me wrong!
This article was also posted on SeniorLifestyle, which I edit
Search all articles by Stu Johnson
Stu Johnson is owner of Stuart Johnson & Associates, a communications consultancy in Wheaton, Illinois focused on "making information make sense."
• E-mail the author (moc.setaicossajs@uts*)* For web-based email, you may need to copy and paste the address yourself.
Posted: November 6, 2020 Accessed 2,306 times
Go to the list of most recent InfoMatters Blogs
Search InfoMatters (You can expand the search to the entire site)
Category: Information / Topics: Demographics • Statistics • Trends
by Stu Johnson
Posted: November 6, 2020
October 31 update comparing the U.S. with other countries…
This is the fourth in a series of reflections aimed at putting what we know about the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic in perspective. The first, "Ode to Joy," posted April 9, looked at examples of the human spirit rising to the challenges of the pandemic. The second, "About Those Numbers," posted May 19, looked at projections, reporting of milestones, and historical comparisons. The third, "Another Milestone," posted September 28, looked at the COVID numbers as American deaths passed the 200,000 mark. This report uses a similar format to that report, comparing different countries one month later.
This report is an update of the last one in this series (see links above). The analysis compares data for October 31 with the last report, September 28 (that date was used because it was close to the U.S. death rate passing the 200,000 mark, which now makes it appropriate to make ongoing updates at the end of each month).
While anticipated in the cautious predictions of some experts, a global surge in COVID infections began to occur in the past two weeks,catching some by surprise and forcing many governments to impose new social restrictions—in some cases walking back to the severe lock-downs of the early days of the pandemic in the spring.
When I wrote in May, there were hopeful signs that the daily numbers of cases and deaths were trending down, but then as states began to open (especially those without strict mitigation requirements) and as a new school year approached, areas of resurgence began to appear. Indeed, university campuses, with all their careful planning to stem an outbreak, were ambushed by the death-defying quest to party.
In my own area, an exception has been Wheaton College, a Christian liberal arts institution of about 2,400 resident students, which is always at the bottom of lists of party schools. The college converted part of a remote campus location to serve as a quarantine center if needed, has required testing, use of a hybrid model of in-person and remote learning, and emphasized strict mitigation efforts in housing, dining and other campus activities. To encourage small, safe gatherings, the college installed fire pits around the campus, even supplying fire wood and ingredients for S'mores (Wheaton's answer to binge drinking!). Within the last month, it is my understanding that a large campus-wide COVID test revealed only one student and one staff member who tested positive.
A report on the PBS News Hour of a small college in Maine about the size of Wheaton showed similar good results. My daughter, who works at Northwest University in Kirkland, Washington, a slightly smaller campus, reports similar results with its own adaptation to mitigation while maintaining a resident student population. So, it is possible to prevent or greatly reduce chances of an outbreak, though it appears to be most successful in institutions that are far smaller and more homogeneous in culture than very large university campuses. (See the National Geographic report "The colleges with virtually no coronavirus cases")
Since late summer the general upward trend has intensified and some states (like Illinois, where I live) have responded by re-imposing bans on bars and indoor dining in designated regions (the state is now divided into 11 zones). Those businesses affected are crying foul and pointing to an increase in larger and less-protected, even defiant, gatherings of friends and family as a deeper problem. In the area where I live several restaurants have defied the governor's order and remain open, accusing the governor of arbitrary judgment in allowing other businesses to remain open..
At least one restaurant near us has sued the governor and gotten a court-approved restraining order allowing it to remain open while the suit advances. Some local authorities have indicated they will not enforce the governor's order on indoor dining. As far as I know, those restaurants that have chosen to continue indoor dining have not flouted mitigation requirements but in some cases intensified to promote themselves as a safe place to gather. Interestingly, one factor that is gaining attention is the quality of indoor air handling, with high levels of air exchange and use of highest quality air filters, and some establishments have begun to include air quality in promoting their own safety.
Despite good examples, all of this represents a growing desire of people to gather, some in defiance of the mitigation efforts that are needed to effectively stem the advance of COVID-19. That raises serious questions of the direction we are headed as we move into cooler weather and the normal flu season, as well as traditional times of gathering during Thanksgiving and the longer Christmas-New Year's holiday season. The numbers could, indeed, get far worse. The one glimmer of good news is that while infections climb in the U.S., the death rate is not rising as rapidly. This is reflected in growing infections among the 15-29 year-old group, where illness may be less severe and recovery more certain. That does not diminish the concern of health care systems in areas of intense surges who fear for their ability to manage a rapid rise in those needing hospitalization.
So, let's review the current nationwide numbers. Once again, I will look at the data from two viewpoints: how the COVID-19 death rate in the U.S, compares to the 10 leading causes of death in America, and how the U.S. compares to other countries in the world.
According to the CDC, the 10 leading causes of death in 2017 (the latest year available) were as follows. COVID death milestones are shown in red. Even if the final toll by the end of 2020 is well below worst-case projections (upwards of 2-million deaths), it is striking how rapid the rise in deaths has been since early March.
COVID-19 death "milestones" (2020) against the 10 leading causes of death in America (2017)
There are those who question the veracity of assigning COVID-19 to many deaths among people with underlying conditions, such as heart and respiratory disease. Still others have suggested a rise in other health issues, including death, because of deferred health care. It will be years before all of that is sorted out. For my purposes here, I can only go by the most reliable sources available.
Is the U.S. the worst in the world in terms of COVID-19 statistics? Overall, we are being hit harder by COVID than many other countries, sometimes with well-deserved criticism for the free-wheeling, anti-establishment, "cowboy" stereotype through which much of the world views the United States. However, in recent weeks there has been news of surges in Europe and other parts of the world.
To help frame the analysis that follows, consider a quick profile of a range of different countries that appear near the top of the measures included. (Data from worldometers.com as of September 28, 2020, with several additional countries and corrections of density numbers as of October 31, 2020).
Rank | Country | Population | Share of World Population | Density People per square km | Urban Population | Median Age |
WORLD | 7.82B | 100% | -- | -- | -- | |
Top 10 Countries by Population, and Europe | ||||||
1 | China | 1.44B | 18.4% | 153 | 61% | 38 |
2 | India | 1.38B | 17.7% | 454 | 35% | 28 |
- | Europe | 747.7M | 9.6% | 44 countries | ||
3 | USA | 331.5M | 4.3% | 36 | 83% | 38 |
4 | Indonesia | 274.5M | 3.5% | 151 | 56% | 30 |
5 | Pakistan | 220.9M | 2.8% | 287 | 35% | 23 |
6 | Brazil | 212.9M | 2.7% | 25 | 88% | 33 |
7 | Nigeria | 206.1M | 2.6% | 226 | 52% | 18 |
8 | Bangladesh | 165.2M | 2.1% | 1,265 | 39% | 28 |
9 | Russia | 145.9M | 1.9% | 9 | 74% | 40 |
10 | Mexico | 129.3M | 1.7% | 66 | 84% | 29 |
Other Countries included in Analysis most have been in top 20 of one or more categories covered | ||||||
18 | Iran | 83.9M | 1.1% | 52 | 76% | 32 |
19 | Germany | 83.8M | 1.1% | 240 | 76% | 46 |
21 | United Kingdom | 67.9M | 0.9% | 281 | 83% | 40 |
22 | France | 65.3M | 0.8% | 119 | 82% | 42 |
23 | Italy | 60.4M | 0.8% | 206 | 69% | 47 |
25 | South Africa | 58.3M | 0.7% | 49 | 67% | 28 |
29 | Colombia | 50.9M | 0.7% | 46 | 80% | 31 |
30 | Spain | 46.8M | 0.6% | 94 | 80% | 45 |
32 | Argentina | 45.2M | 0.6% | 17 | 93% | 32 |
36 | Iraq | 40.3M | 0.6% | 93 | 73% | 21 |
39 | Canada | 37.7M | 0.5% | 4 | 81% | 41 |
43 | Peru | 32.9M | 0.4% | 26 | 79% | 31 |
63 | Chile | 19.1M | 0.2% | 26 | 85% | 35 |
67 | Ecuador | 17.6M | 0.2% | 71 | 63% | 28 |
80 | Bolivia | 11.7M | 0.1% | 11 | 69% | 26 |
81 | Belgium | 11.6M | 0.1% | 383 | 98% | 42 |
Here is the latest (October 31) from worldometers.info, which reveals a complicated mix of cases versus population, mortality rates among those who do become infected, testing levels and other factors.
It does show how one can cherry pick statistics to some extent to support a point of view. As stated in my previous articles, raw numbers can be powerful but somewhat misleading, so it is necessary to compare them with rates and shares, which the worldmeter data provides:
Remember, this is a snapshot of a particular day (October 31), so running the reports again in the future will change both the numbers and the rankings. The threshold for highlighting changes in each category was selected to easily point out the most significant changes.
I am admittedly a number cruncher and pattern seeker, so there are two broad conclusions to make at this point during the COVID-19 pandemic.
First, it does not look like COVID-19 will come anywhere near the truly apocalyptic toll of the Spanish Flu a century ago. That was exacerbated by a world war, which in many ways pushed the pandemic itself into the background. Together, the war and flu accounted for 72-million to perhaps 100-million deaths, roughly 4% of the world population at the time.
Second while the U.S. mortality rate is relatively low (down to 2.5% in October, compared to 2.9% in September), the U.S. so far is poised to come out of COVID-19 looking much worse than many other countries because the number of cases is so high. A lot of blame is heaped on the Trump administration, which may be deserved, but we also have to account for significant differences in responses by state and region. In some respects our federal republic looks like 50 different countries and the profiles above show how different they can be.
I have tried to help guide you through some of the numbers to add perspective and an understanding of how to read the numbers.
Moving ahead into the potentially dangerous winter months will require more resolve than we've demonstrated to date—and sadly I don't see reasons to be very optimistic right now. America, prove me wrong!
This article was also posted on SeniorLifestyle, which I edit
Search all articles by Stu Johnson
Stu Johnson is owner of Stuart Johnson & Associates, a communications consultancy in Wheaton, Illinois focused on "making information make sense."
• E-mail the author (moc.setaicossajs@uts*)* For web-based email, you may need to copy and paste the address yourself.
Posted: November 6, 2020 Accessed 2,306 times
Go to the list of most recent InfoMatters Blogs
Search InfoMatters (You can expand the search to the entire site)
Category: Information / Topics: Demographics • Statistics • Trends
by Stu Johnson
Posted: November 6, 2020
October 31 update comparing the U.S. with other countries…
This is the fourth in a series of reflections aimed at putting what we know about the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic in perspective. The first, "Ode to Joy," posted April 9, looked at examples of the human spirit rising to the challenges of the pandemic. The second, "About Those Numbers," posted May 19, looked at projections, reporting of milestones, and historical comparisons. The third, "Another Milestone," posted September 28, looked at the COVID numbers as American deaths passed the 200,000 mark. This report uses a similar format to that report, comparing different countries one month later.
This report is an update of the last one in this series (see links above). The analysis compares data for October 31 with the last report, September 28 (that date was used because it was close to the U.S. death rate passing the 200,000 mark, which now makes it appropriate to make ongoing updates at the end of each month).
While anticipated in the cautious predictions of some experts, a global surge in COVID infections began to occur in the past two weeks,catching some by surprise and forcing many governments to impose new social restrictions—in some cases walking back to the severe lock-downs of the early days of the pandemic in the spring.
When I wrote in May, there were hopeful signs that the daily numbers of cases and deaths were trending down, but then as states began to open (especially those without strict mitigation requirements) and as a new school year approached, areas of resurgence began to appear. Indeed, university campuses, with all their careful planning to stem an outbreak, were ambushed by the death-defying quest to party.
In my own area, an exception has been Wheaton College, a Christian liberal arts institution of about 2,400 resident students, which is always at the bottom of lists of party schools. The college converted part of a remote campus location to serve as a quarantine center if needed, has required testing, use of a hybrid model of in-person and remote learning, and emphasized strict mitigation efforts in housing, dining and other campus activities. To encourage small, safe gatherings, the college installed fire pits around the campus, even supplying fire wood and ingredients for S'mores (Wheaton's answer to binge drinking!). Within the last month, it is my understanding that a large campus-wide COVID test revealed only one student and one staff member who tested positive.
A report on the PBS News Hour of a small college in Maine about the size of Wheaton showed similar good results. My daughter, who works at Northwest University in Kirkland, Washington, a slightly smaller campus, reports similar results with its own adaptation to mitigation while maintaining a resident student population. So, it is possible to prevent or greatly reduce chances of an outbreak, though it appears to be most successful in institutions that are far smaller and more homogeneous in culture than very large university campuses. (See the National Geographic report "The colleges with virtually no coronavirus cases")
Since late summer the general upward trend has intensified and some states (like Illinois, where I live) have responded by re-imposing bans on bars and indoor dining in designated regions (the state is now divided into 11 zones). Those businesses affected are crying foul and pointing to an increase in larger and less-protected, even defiant, gatherings of friends and family as a deeper problem. In the area where I live several restaurants have defied the governor's order and remain open, accusing the governor of arbitrary judgment in allowing other businesses to remain open..
At least one restaurant near us has sued the governor and gotten a court-approved restraining order allowing it to remain open while the suit advances. Some local authorities have indicated they will not enforce the governor's order on indoor dining. As far as I know, those restaurants that have chosen to continue indoor dining have not flouted mitigation requirements but in some cases intensified to promote themselves as a safe place to gather. Interestingly, one factor that is gaining attention is the quality of indoor air handling, with high levels of air exchange and use of highest quality air filters, and some establishments have begun to include air quality in promoting their own safety.
Despite good examples, all of this represents a growing desire of people to gather, some in defiance of the mitigation efforts that are needed to effectively stem the advance of COVID-19. That raises serious questions of the direction we are headed as we move into cooler weather and the normal flu season, as well as traditional times of gathering during Thanksgiving and the longer Christmas-New Year's holiday season. The numbers could, indeed, get far worse. The one glimmer of good news is that while infections climb in the U.S., the death rate is not rising as rapidly. This is reflected in growing infections among the 15-29 year-old group, where illness may be less severe and recovery more certain. That does not diminish the concern of health care systems in areas of intense surges who fear for their ability to manage a rapid rise in those needing hospitalization.
So, let's review the current nationwide numbers. Once again, I will look at the data from two viewpoints: how the COVID-19 death rate in the U.S, compares to the 10 leading causes of death in America, and how the U.S. compares to other countries in the world.
According to the CDC, the 10 leading causes of death in 2017 (the latest year available) were as follows. COVID death milestones are shown in red. Even if the final toll by the end of 2020 is well below worst-case projections (upwards of 2-million deaths), it is striking how rapid the rise in deaths has been since early March.
COVID-19 death "milestones" (2020) against the 10 leading causes of death in America (2017)
There are those who question the veracity of assigning COVID-19 to many deaths among people with underlying conditions, such as heart and respiratory disease. Still others have suggested a rise in other health issues, including death, because of deferred health care. It will be years before all of that is sorted out. For my purposes here, I can only go by the most reliable sources available.
Is the U.S. the worst in the world in terms of COVID-19 statistics? Overall, we are being hit harder by COVID than many other countries, sometimes with well-deserved criticism for the free-wheeling, anti-establishment, "cowboy" stereotype through which much of the world views the United States. However, in recent weeks there has been news of surges in Europe and other parts of the world.
To help frame the analysis that follows, consider a quick profile of a range of different countries that appear near the top of the measures included. (Data from worldometers.com as of September 28, 2020, with several additional countries and corrections of density numbers as of October 31, 2020).
Rank | Country | Population | Share of World Population | Density People per square km | Urban Population | Median Age |
WORLD | 7.82B | 100% | -- | -- | -- | |
Top 10 Countries by Population, and Europe | ||||||
1 | China | 1.44B | 18.4% | 153 | 61% | 38 |
2 | India | 1.38B | 17.7% | 454 | 35% | 28 |
- | Europe | 747.7M | 9.6% | 44 countries | ||
3 | USA | 331.5M | 4.3% | 36 | 83% | 38 |
4 | Indonesia | 274.5M | 3.5% | 151 | 56% | 30 |
5 | Pakistan | 220.9M | 2.8% | 287 | 35% | 23 |
6 | Brazil | 212.9M | 2.7% | 25 | 88% | 33 |
7 | Nigeria | 206.1M | 2.6% | 226 | 52% | 18 |
8 | Bangladesh | 165.2M | 2.1% | 1,265 | 39% | 28 |
9 | Russia | 145.9M | 1.9% | 9 | 74% | 40 |
10 | Mexico | 129.3M | 1.7% | 66 | 84% | 29 |
Other Countries included in Analysis most have been in top 20 of one or more categories covered | ||||||
18 | Iran | 83.9M | 1.1% | 52 | 76% | 32 |
19 | Germany | 83.8M | 1.1% | 240 | 76% | 46 |
21 | United Kingdom | 67.9M | 0.9% | 281 | 83% | 40 |
22 | France | 65.3M | 0.8% | 119 | 82% | 42 |
23 | Italy | 60.4M | 0.8% | 206 | 69% | 47 |
25 | South Africa | 58.3M | 0.7% | 49 | 67% | 28 |
29 | Colombia | 50.9M | 0.7% | 46 | 80% | 31 |
30 | Spain | 46.8M | 0.6% | 94 | 80% | 45 |
32 | Argentina | 45.2M | 0.6% | 17 | 93% | 32 |
36 | Iraq | 40.3M | 0.6% | 93 | 73% | 21 |
39 | Canada | 37.7M | 0.5% | 4 | 81% | 41 |
43 | Peru | 32.9M | 0.4% | 26 | 79% | 31 |
63 | Chile | 19.1M | 0.2% | 26 | 85% | 35 |
67 | Ecuador | 17.6M | 0.2% | 71 | 63% | 28 |
80 | Bolivia | 11.7M | 0.1% | 11 | 69% | 26 |
81 | Belgium | 11.6M | 0.1% | 383 | 98% | 42 |
Here is the latest (October 31) from worldometers.info, which reveals a complicated mix of cases versus population, mortality rates among those who do become infected, testing levels and other factors.
It does show how one can cherry pick statistics to some extent to support a point of view. As stated in my previous articles, raw numbers can be powerful but somewhat misleading, so it is necessary to compare them with rates and shares, which the worldmeter data provides:
Remember, this is a snapshot of a particular day (October 31), so running the reports again in the future will change both the numbers and the rankings. The threshold for highlighting changes in each category was selected to easily point out the most significant changes.
I am admittedly a number cruncher and pattern seeker, so there are two broad conclusions to make at this point during the COVID-19 pandemic.
First, it does not look like COVID-19 will come anywhere near the truly apocalyptic toll of the Spanish Flu a century ago. That was exacerbated by a world war, which in many ways pushed the pandemic itself into the background. Together, the war and flu accounted for 72-million to perhaps 100-million deaths, roughly 4% of the world population at the time.
Second while the U.S. mortality rate is relatively low (down to 2.5% in October, compared to 2.9% in September), the U.S. so far is poised to come out of COVID-19 looking much worse than many other countries because the number of cases is so high. A lot of blame is heaped on the Trump administration, which may be deserved, but we also have to account for significant differences in responses by state and region. In some respects our federal republic looks like 50 different countries and the profiles above show how different they can be.
I have tried to help guide you through some of the numbers to add perspective and an understanding of how to read the numbers.
Moving ahead into the potentially dangerous winter months will require more resolve than we've demonstrated to date—and sadly I don't see reasons to be very optimistic right now. America, prove me wrong!
This article was also posted on SeniorLifestyle, which I edit
Search all articles by Stu Johnson
Stu Johnson is owner of Stuart Johnson & Associates, a communications consultancy in Wheaton, Illinois focused on "making information make sense."
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Posted: November 6, 2020 Accessed 2,306 times
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